Maine Senate

The pull is how far recent polling error and outside money move this race off its polls. The ± is our margin of error, like a poll’s.

Polls

Susan Collins +0.2

Undertow

Troy Jackson +2.0 ± 4.5

The pull

2.2 toward Troy Jackson

• Recent polling error2.2 toward Troy JacksonPolls have understated Democrats in every statewide race since November 2025, by 7.5 points in last fall’s governor races. About a third of an off-year miss has repeated the next year, which gives 2.5 points nationally, give or take 1.8. This lean is the site’s main bet. Polls here have overstated Democrats more than the national pattern, so we lean this race 2.2 points toward the Democrat.
• Outside spending · no directionnoneLess money than a race this close usually draws. That usually means one side thinks the race is decided, but the polls here are within 2 points, so there is no clear leader for the money to point to.
• Rhetoric · tested, not countednot countedTroy Jackson’s ads and debate answers run hotter (3.7 against 2.9 on a 1 to 5 scale). We think hotter rhetoric means a campaign is behind in its own polls, but there is no record to prove it yet, so it does not move this reading. It is graded after the election.
• Early vote · tested, not countednot countedEarly voting is running 2.2 points more Democratic than the same point in 2022, by party registration, as of 2026-10-26. A turnout surge can beat the polls, but when we tested early vote in North Carolina from 2010 to 2024 it matched the direction of the polling miss in only 2 of 6 elections, so it does not move this reading. It is frozen November 2 and graded after the election.

No campaign signal is strong enough here, so only the polling-error lean applies. Graded against the results alongside the polls.

The record so far. Applied to 282 past Senate and governor races from 2010 to 2024, this lean did not beat the polls: an average miss of 4.2 points against 4.1. Spending did not either, in 43 past Senate races. The bet is that 2026 is different: last fall’s 7.5-point miss is the largest off-year miss in the archive, which goes back to 1999.