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Quarantine ledger
These records are preserved for accountability. They contribute to no average, contrast, scenario or probability.
Median Strategies admitted on 2026-08-17 that its purported polls were fabricated as a social experiment; firm statement reproduced in Los Angeles Times reporting. The previously cited FiftyPlusOne August 20 article concerned a different firm, TPSI.
Evidence date: 2026-08-17
Exclusion evidence ↗Documented withdrawal after a verification request: FiftyPlusOne asked SoCal Strategies to verify its data on 2026-10-20; by 2026-10-22 the firm's website, X account and Substack were offline with no statement, and FiftyPlusOne removed two surveys and stopped collecting the firm (multiple sources alleged fabrication).
Evidence date: 2026-10-22
Exclusion evidence ↗Documented fabrication: on 2026-10-20 Wedgewood Polls admitted on social media it had been fabricating data, after FiftyPlusOne asked it to verify its surveys (FiftyPlusOne, 'FiftyPlusOne just caught a pollster faking data', 2026-10-20). Hosting on the firm's own site or an aggregator mirror does not override the authenticity failure.
Evidence date: 2026-10-20
Exclusion evidence ↗| Source | Race | Field dates | Published margin | Exclusion reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate | Sep 12–Sep 13 | D +5.0 | QUARANTINE | |
| Georgia governor | Oct 2–Oct 3 | R +2.0 | QUARANTINE | |
| Georgia Senate | Oct 2–Oct 3 | D +10.0 | QUARANTINE | |
| Michigan governor | Oct 8–Oct 9 | D +10.0 | QUARANTINE | |
| Michigan Senate | Oct 8–Oct 9 | D +6.0 | QUARANTINE |