Loading the observation ledger…
Loading the observation ledger…
Prospective record
The freeze is scheduled for November 2, 2026. Certified outcomes are recorded later in a new immutable release.
No frozen predictions or certified results
The documented heuristic maps the final weighted D-minus-R margin to a probability using a fixed 5-point standard deviation. It is not calibrated by the two-election backtest. No probability is computed before the November 2 freeze.
Grading uses certified full-denominator results on the matching ballot round. Missing or incompatible results remain ungraded. Original and corrected releases stay visible.
race set = races with a defined debate gap at the Stage 3 freeze; outcome = the certified loser; metric = count and share of graded races where the hotter debate candidate lost, ties reported separately and excluded from the share; 0.5 is a no-information reference, not a test of predictive validity.
Ads remain exploratory and separate. Coverage temperature is not a candidate score.